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Modbury Jets vs Adelaide University — South Australia State League 1 2021

Modbury Jets
Modbury Jets
FT
3 – 0
Adelaide University
Adelaide University
6/11/2022South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 14Smith Partners Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Modbury Jets67%
×Draw19%
Adelaide University14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modbury Jets
2.23
Adelaide University
0.93

Modbury Jets creates 140% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 11 away

creates per match

Modbury Jets
2.55
Adelaide University
0.73

allows per match

Modbury Jets
1.12
Adelaide University
1.91

finishing

Modbury Jets+0.00on par
Adelaide University+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modbury Jets ↓

Adelaide University →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Modbury Jets or draw
86%
Modbury Jets or Adelaide University
81%
Draw or Adelaide University
33%

Winning margin

Modbury Jets wins by 2+
43%
Adelaide University wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Modbury Jets 1+ goals
89%
Modbury Jets 2+ goals
65%
Modbury Jets 3+ goals
38%
Adelaide University 1+ goals
61%
Adelaide University 2+ goals
24%
Adelaide University 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Modbury Jets (draw refunded)
82%
Adelaide University (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modbury Jets at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Adelaide University away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modbury Jets attack 2.55 + Adelaide University defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.23

Adelaide University attack 0.73 + Modbury Jets defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Modbury Jets scores more
67%
level
19%
Adelaide University scores more
14%

Modbury Jets at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Modbury Jets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Modbury Jets vs Adelaide University

Modbury Jets beat Adelaide University 3-0 in South Australia State League 1 on June 11, 2022.

The match was played at Smith Partners Stadium in Adelaide.