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Adelaide University vs Modbury Jets — South Australia State League 1 2026

Adelaide University
Adelaide University
FT
2 – 5
Modbury Jets
Modbury Jets
3/5/2022South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 3VALO Football Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Adelaide University18%
×Draw19%
Modbury Jets63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide University
1.19
Modbury Jets
2.37

Modbury Jets creates 99% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 32 away

creates per match

Adelaide University
1.18
Modbury Jets
2.09

allows per match

Adelaide University
2.64
Modbury Jets
1.19

finishing

Adelaide University+0.00on par
Modbury Jets+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide University ↓

Modbury Jets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Adelaide University or draw
37%
Adelaide University or Modbury Jets
81%
Draw or Modbury Jets
82%

Winning margin

Adelaide University wins by 2+
7%
Modbury Jets wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Adelaide University 1+ goals
70%
Adelaide University 2+ goals
33%
Adelaide University 3+ goals
12%
Modbury Jets 1+ goals
91%
Modbury Jets 2+ goals
68%
Modbury Jets 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Adelaide University (draw refunded)
22%
Modbury Jets (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide University at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.64 · 11 matches

Modbury Jets away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.19 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide University attack 1.18 + Modbury Jets defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Modbury Jets attack 2.09 + Adelaide University defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Adelaide University scores more
18%
level
19%
Modbury Jets scores more
63%

Modbury Jets at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Modbury Jets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adelaide University vs Modbury Jets

Modbury Jets beat Adelaide University 5-2 in South Australia State League 1 on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at VALO Football Centre in Adelaide.