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Modbury Jets vs Adelaide United II — South Australia NPL 2026

Modbury Jets
Modbury Jets
FT
4 – 4
HT: 3 – 0
Adelaide United II
Adelaide United II
H. McCabe 63', 45'
J. Francesca 45+3'
F. Schimizzi 4'
R. White 85', 80'
P. McGregor 71'
A. Tatu 68'
6/1/2024South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 13Smith Partners Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Modbury Jets42%
×Draw22%
Adelaide United II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modbury Jets
1.91
Adelaide United II
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 87 away

creates per match

Modbury Jets
1.79
Adelaide United II
1.70

allows per match

Modbury Jets
1.85
Adelaide United II
2.02

finishing

Modbury Jets+0.00on par
Adelaide United II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modbury Jets ↓

Adelaide United II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Modbury Jets or draw
64%
Modbury Jets or Adelaide United II
78%
Draw or Adelaide United II
58%

Winning margin

Modbury Jets wins by 2+
23%
Adelaide United II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Modbury Jets 1+ goals
85%
Modbury Jets 2+ goals
57%
Modbury Jets 3+ goals
30%
Adelaide United II 1+ goals
83%
Adelaide United II 2+ goals
53%
Adelaide United II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Modbury Jets (draw refunded)
54%
Adelaide United II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modbury Jets at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.85 · 47 matches

Adelaide United II away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.02 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modbury Jets attack 1.79 + Adelaide United II defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.91

Adelaide United II attack 1.70 + Modbury Jets defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Modbury Jets scores more
42%
level
22%
Adelaide United II scores more
36%

Modbury Jets at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Modbury Jets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
F. Schimizzi
45'
H. McCabe
45+3'
J. Francesca
63'
H. McCabe
68'
A. Tatu
71'
P. McGregor
80'
R. White
85'
R. White

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Modbury Jets vs Adelaide United II

Modbury Jets and Adelaide United II drew 4-4 in South Australia NPL on June 1, 2024.

Goals: F. Schimizzi (4'), H. McCabe (45', 63'), J. Francesca (45+3'), A. Tatu (68'), P. McGregor (71'), R. White (80', 85').

The match was played at Smith Partners Stadium in Adelaide.