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Adelaide United II vs Modbury Jets — South Australia NPL 2026

Adelaide United II
Adelaide United II
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 4
Modbury Jets
Modbury Jets
R. White 1'
J. Shrestha 78'
H. McCabe 44', 35', 20' (pen)
D. Kirk 16'
3/2/2024South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 2ServiceFM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Adelaide United II45%
×Draw22%
Modbury Jets33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide United II
1.96
Modbury Jets
1.66

Adelaide United II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 47 away

creates per match

Adelaide United II
1.95
Modbury Jets
1.53

allows per match

Adelaide United II
1.79
Modbury Jets
1.98

finishing

Adelaide United II+0.00on par
Modbury Jets+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide United II ↓

Modbury Jets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Adelaide United II or draw
67%
Adelaide United II or Modbury Jets
78%
Draw or Modbury Jets
55%

Winning margin

Adelaide United II wins by 2+
25%
Modbury Jets wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Adelaide United II 1+ goals
86%
Adelaide United II 2+ goals
58%
Adelaide United II 3+ goals
31%
Modbury Jets 1+ goals
81%
Modbury Jets 2+ goals
49%
Modbury Jets 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Adelaide United II (draw refunded)
58%
Modbury Jets (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide United II at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.79 · 85 matches

Modbury Jets away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.98 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide United II attack 1.95 + Modbury Jets defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.96

Modbury Jets attack 1.53 + Adelaide United II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Adelaide United II scores more
45%
level
22%
Modbury Jets scores more
33%

Adelaide United II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Adelaide United II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
R. White
16'
D. Kirk
20'
H. McCabePenalty
35'
H. McCabe
44'
H. McCabe
64'
J. P. Mbembe Kumbokau
64'
J. P. Mbembe Kumbokau
78'
J. Shrestha

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adelaide United II vs Modbury Jets

Modbury Jets beat Adelaide United II 5-1 in South Australia NPL on March 2, 2024.

Goals: R. White (1'), D. Kirk (16'), H. McCabe (20' pen, 35', 44'), J. Shrestha (78').

The match was played at ServiceFM Stadium in Adelaide.