Moca 1–0 Atlético de SF: Result & Stats

Moca

FT

1 – 0

Atlético de SF

7/2/2021

Liga Mayor · Round 14Estadio Polideportivo Moca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Moca65%

×Draw21%

Atlético de SF14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MocaExpected goals in this matchAtlético de SF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.80

Moca

2.00

Atlético de SF

0.80

Moca creates 150% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 9 away

1.22

creates per match

0.67

0.93

allows per match

2.78

creates per match

Moca

1.22

Atlético de SF

0.67

allows per match

Moca

0.93

Atlético de SF

2.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moca+0.00on par

Atlético de SF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moca ↓

Atlético de SF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Moca or draw

86%

Moca or Atlético de SF

79%

Draw or Atlético de SF

35%

Winning margin

Moca wins by 2+

40%

Atlético de SF wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Moca 1+ goals

86%

Moca 2+ goals

59%

Moca 3+ goals

32%

Atlético de SF 1+ goals

55%

Atlético de SF 2+ goals

19%

Atlético de SF 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Moca (draw refunded)

82%

Atlético de SF (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moca at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.93 · 73 matches

Atlético de SF away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moca attack 1.22 + Atlético de SF defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.00

Atlético de SF attack 0.67 + Moca defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Moca scores more

65%

level

21%

Atlético de SF scores more

14%

Moca at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Moca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff