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Atlético de SF vs Moca — Liga Mayor 2020

Atlético de SF
Atlético de SF
FT
0 – 3
Moca
Moca
5/30/2021Liga MayorLiga Mayor · Round 7Estadio Polideportivo Moca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Atlético de SF28%
×Draw26%
Moca46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético de SF
1.07
Moca
1.46

Moca creates 36% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 73 away

creates per match

Atlético de SF
1.00
Moca
1.15

allows per match

Atlético de SF
1.78
Moca
1.14

finishing

Atlético de SF+0.00on par
Moca+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético de SF ↓

Moca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético de SF or draw
54%
Atlético de SF or Moca
74%
Draw or Moca
72%

Winning margin

Atlético de SF wins by 2+
11%
Moca wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Atlético de SF 1+ goals
66%
Atlético de SF 2+ goals
29%
Atlético de SF 3+ goals
9%
Moca 1+ goals
77%
Moca 2+ goals
43%
Moca 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Atlético de SF (draw refunded)
38%
Moca (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético de SF at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Moca away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.14 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético de SF attack 1.00 + Moca defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Moca attack 1.15 + Atlético de SF defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atlético de SF scores more
28%
level
26%
Moca scores more
46%

Moca at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Moca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético de SF vs Moca

Moca beat Atlético de SF 3-0 in Liga Mayor on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo Moca in Moca.