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MO Constantine vs Khroub — League #187 2026

MO Constantine
MO Constantine
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Khroub
Khroub
3/6/2026League #187League #187 · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

MO Constantine56%
×Draw36%
Khroub7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MO Constantine
1.00
Khroub
0.20

MO Constantine creates 400% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

MO Constantine
1.00
Khroub
0.20

allows per match

MO Constantine
0.20
Khroub
1.00

finishing

MO Constantine+0.00on par
Khroub+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Under
  • Under88
  • Over12

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

89%No
  • No89
  • Yes11

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MO Constantine ↓

Khroub →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–030%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–030%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–13%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (30%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
70%30%1.5
34%66%2.5
12%88%3.5
3%97%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

MO Constantine or draw
93%
MO Constantine or Khroub
64%
Draw or Khroub
44%

Winning margin

MO Constantine wins by 2+
23%
Khroub wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

MO Constantine 1+ goals
63%
MO Constantine 2+ goals
26%
MO Constantine 3+ goals
8%
Khroub 1+ goals
18%
Khroub 2+ goals
2%
Khroub 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

MO Constantine (draw refunded)
88%
Khroub (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
5%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MO Constantine at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Khroub away — creates 0.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MO Constantine attack 1.00 + Khroub defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Khroub attack 0.20 + MO Constantine defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

MO Constantine scores more
56%
level
36%
Khroub scores more
7%

MO Constantine at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "MO Constantine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MO Constantine vs Khroub

MO Constantine beat Khroub 2-0 in League #187 on March 6, 2026.