Khroub 2–0 MO Constantine: Result & Stats

Khroub

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

MO Constantine

10/26/2024

League #187 · East - 7Stade Abed Hamdani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Khroub40%

×Draw40%

MO Constantine19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhroubExpected goals in this matchMO Constantine

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.78

0.45

Khroub

0.78

MO Constantine

0.45

Khroub creates 73% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

0.71

0.20

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Khroub

1.00

MO Constantine

0.71

allows per match

Khroub

0.20

MO Constantine

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khroub+0.00on par

MO Constantine+0.00on par

Total goals

Under87
Over13

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No80
Yes20

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khroub ↓

MO Constantine →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–029%

0–113%

0–23%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–023%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–14%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (29%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

71%29%1.5

35%65%2.5

13%87%3.5

4%96%4.5

1%99%

Double chance

Khroub or draw

81%

Khroub or MO Constantine

60%

Draw or MO Constantine

60%

Winning margin

Khroub wins by 2+

13%

MO Constantine wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Khroub 1+ goals

54%

Khroub 2+ goals

18%

Khroub 3+ goals

4%

MO Constantine 1+ goals

36%

MO Constantine 2+ goals

8%

MO Constantine 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Khroub (draw refunded)

67%

MO Constantine (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

9%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khroub at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

MO Constantine away — creates 0.71, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khroub attack 1.00 + MO Constantine defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.78

MO Constantine attack 0.71 + Khroub defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Khroub scores more

40%

level

40%

MO Constantine scores more

19%

Khroub at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Khroub will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff