Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

MO Bejaia vs JSM Skikda — Ligue 1 2018

MO Bejaia
MO Bejaia
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
JSM Skikda
JSM Skikda
9/29/2018Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 8Stade de l'Unité Maghrébine (Béjaïa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

MO Bejaia51%
×Draw32%
JSM Skikda18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MO Bejaia
1.15
JSM Skikda
0.55

MO Bejaia creates 109% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 35 away

creates per match

MO Bejaia
0.73
JSM Skikda
0.37

allows per match

MO Bejaia
0.73
JSM Skikda
1.57

finishing

MO Bejaia+0.00on par
JSM Skikda+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MO Bejaia ↓

JSM Skikda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

MO Bejaia or draw
82%
MO Bejaia or JSM Skikda
68%
Draw or JSM Skikda
49%

Winning margin

MO Bejaia wins by 2+
22%
JSM Skikda wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

MO Bejaia 1+ goals
68%
MO Bejaia 2+ goals
32%
MO Bejaia 3+ goals
11%
JSM Skikda 1+ goals
42%
JSM Skikda 2+ goals
11%
JSM Skikda 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

MO Bejaia (draw refunded)
74%
JSM Skikda (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MO Bejaia at home — creates 0.73, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

JSM Skikda away — creates 0.37, concedes 1.57 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MO Bejaia attack 0.73 + JSM Skikda defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.15

JSM Skikda attack 0.37 + MO Bejaia defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

MO Bejaia scores more
51%
level
32%
JSM Skikda scores more
18%

MO Bejaia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "MO Bejaia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MO Bejaia 0 – 1 JSM Skikda

JSM Skikda beat MO Bejaia 1-0 in Ligue 1 on September 29, 2018.

The match was played at Stade de l'Unité Maghrébine (Béjaïa).