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JSM Skikda vs MO Bejaia — Ligue 1 2018

JSM Skikda
JSM Skikda
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
MO Bejaia
MO Bejaia
3/2/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 23Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bechar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

JSM Skikda47%
×Draw27%
MO Bejaia26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JSM Skikda
1.43
MO Bejaia
0.98

JSM Skikda creates 46% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 15 away

creates per match

JSM Skikda
1.19
MO Bejaia
0.80

allows per match

JSM Skikda
1.17
MO Bejaia
1.67

finishing

JSM Skikda+0.00on par
MO Bejaia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSM Skikda ↓

MO Bejaia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

JSM Skikda or draw
74%
JSM Skikda or MO Bejaia
73%
Draw or MO Bejaia
53%

Winning margin

JSM Skikda wins by 2+
23%
MO Bejaia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

JSM Skikda 1+ goals
76%
JSM Skikda 2+ goals
42%
JSM Skikda 3+ goals
17%
MO Bejaia 1+ goals
62%
MO Bejaia 2+ goals
26%
MO Bejaia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

JSM Skikda (draw refunded)
65%
MO Bejaia (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSM Skikda at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.17 · 36 matches

MO Bejaia away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSM Skikda attack 1.19 + MO Bejaia defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.43

MO Bejaia attack 0.80 + JSM Skikda defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

JSM Skikda scores more
47%
level
27%
MO Bejaia scores more
26%

JSM Skikda at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "JSM Skikda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: JSM Skikda 0–0 MO Bejaia

JSM Skikda and MO Bejaia drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on March 2, 2019.

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bechar).