Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

MO Bejaia vs Bordj Bou Arreridj — Ligue 1 2018

MO Bejaia
MO Bejaia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bordj Bou Arreridj
Bordj Bou Arreridj
2/12/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 22Stade de l'Unité Maghrébine (Béjaïa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

MO Bejaia49%
×Draw31%
Bordj Bou Arreridj20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MO Bejaia
1.18
Bordj Bou Arreridj
0.63

MO Bejaia creates 87% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

MO Bejaia
0.73
Bordj Bou Arreridj
0.53

allows per match

MO Bejaia
0.73
Bordj Bou Arreridj
1.62

finishing

MO Bejaia+0.00on par
Bordj Bou Arreridj+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MO Bejaia ↓

Bordj Bou Arreridj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

MO Bejaia or draw
80%
MO Bejaia or Bordj Bou Arreridj
69%
Draw or Bordj Bou Arreridj
51%

Winning margin

MO Bejaia wins by 2+
22%
Bordj Bou Arreridj wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

MO Bejaia 1+ goals
69%
MO Bejaia 2+ goals
33%
MO Bejaia 3+ goals
12%
Bordj Bou Arreridj 1+ goals
47%
Bordj Bou Arreridj 2+ goals
13%
Bordj Bou Arreridj 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

MO Bejaia (draw refunded)
71%
Bordj Bou Arreridj (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MO Bejaia at home — creates 0.73, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Bordj Bou Arreridj away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.62 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MO Bejaia attack 0.73 + Bordj Bou Arreridj defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.18

Bordj Bou Arreridj attack 0.53 + MO Bejaia defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

MO Bejaia scores more
49%
level
31%
Bordj Bou Arreridj scores more
20%

MO Bejaia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "MO Bejaia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: MO Bejaia 0–0 Bordj Bou Arreridj

MO Bejaia and Bordj Bou Arreridj drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on February 12, 2019.

The match was played at Stade de l'Unité Maghrébine (Béjaïa).