Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bordj Bou Arreridj vs MO Bejaia — Ligue 1 2018

Bordj Bou Arreridj
Bordj Bou Arreridj
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
MO Bejaia
MO Bejaia
9/21/2018Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 7Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bordj Bou Arréridj)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bordj Bou Arreridj48%
×Draw27%
MO Bejaia25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bordj Bou Arreridj
1.38
MO Bejaia
0.92

Bordj Bou Arreridj creates 50% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Bordj Bou Arreridj
1.09
MO Bejaia
0.80

allows per match

Bordj Bou Arreridj
1.04
MO Bejaia
1.67

finishing

Bordj Bou Arreridj+0.00on par
MO Bejaia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bordj Bou Arreridj ↓

MO Bejaia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bordj Bou Arreridj or draw
75%
Bordj Bou Arreridj or MO Bejaia
73%
Draw or MO Bejaia
52%

Winning margin

Bordj Bou Arreridj wins by 2+
23%
MO Bejaia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bordj Bou Arreridj 1+ goals
75%
Bordj Bou Arreridj 2+ goals
40%
Bordj Bou Arreridj 3+ goals
16%
MO Bejaia 1+ goals
60%
MO Bejaia 2+ goals
23%
MO Bejaia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bordj Bou Arreridj (draw refunded)
65%
MO Bejaia (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bordj Bou Arreridj at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

MO Bejaia away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bordj Bou Arreridj attack 1.09 + MO Bejaia defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.38

MO Bejaia attack 0.80 + Bordj Bou Arreridj defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bordj Bou Arreridj scores more
48%
level
27%
MO Bejaia scores more
25%

Bordj Bou Arreridj at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bordj Bou Arreridj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bordj Bou Arreridj vs MO Bejaia

Bordj Bou Arreridj and MO Bejaia drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on September 21, 2018.

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bordj Bou Arréridj).