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MO Bejaia vs Amal BOU Saada — League #187 2026

MO Bejaia
MO Bejaia
FT
5 – 1
Amal BOU Saada
Amal BOU Saada
A. Leboukhi 90'
M. Zouaoui 81'
B. Abdelhak 71'
K. Kasdi 60'
A. Sahed 49'
Unknown 56'
6/26/2021League #187League #187 · Center - 22Stade de l'Unité Maghrébine

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

MO Bejaia59%
×Draw23%
Amal BOU Saada18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MO Bejaia
1.79
Amal BOU Saada
0.88

MO Bejaia creates 103% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

creates per match

MO Bejaia
1.50
Amal BOU Saada
1.00

allows per match

MO Bejaia
0.75
Amal BOU Saada
2.08

finishing

MO Bejaia+0.00on par
Amal BOU Saada+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MO Bejaia ↓

Amal BOU Saada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

MO Bejaia or draw
82%
MO Bejaia or Amal BOU Saada
77%
Draw or Amal BOU Saada
41%

Winning margin

MO Bejaia wins by 2+
34%
Amal BOU Saada wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

MO Bejaia 1+ goals
83%
MO Bejaia 2+ goals
53%
MO Bejaia 3+ goals
26%
Amal BOU Saada 1+ goals
59%
Amal BOU Saada 2+ goals
22%
Amal BOU Saada 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

MO Bejaia (draw refunded)
76%
Amal BOU Saada (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MO Bejaia at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Amal BOU Saada away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MO Bejaia attack 1.50 + Amal BOU Saada defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.79

Amal BOU Saada attack 1.00 + MO Bejaia defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

MO Bejaia scores more
59%
level
23%
Amal BOU Saada scores more
18%

MO Bejaia at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "MO Bejaia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
49'
A. Sahed
56'
60'
K. Kasdi
71'
B. Abdelhak
81'
M. Zouaoui
90'
A. Leboukhi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MO Bejaia vs Amal BOU Saada

MO Bejaia beat Amal BOU Saada 5-1 in League #187 on June 26, 2021.

Goals: A. Sahed (49'), ? (56'), K. Kasdi (60'), B. Abdelhak (71'), M. Zouaoui (81'), A. Leboukhi (90').

The match was played at Stade de l'Unité Maghrébine in Béjaïa.