Amal BOU Saada 1–0 MO Bejaia: Result & Stats

Amal BOU Saada

FT

1 – 0

MO Bejaia

Belouadah 73'

10/19/2019

League #187 · Round 8Stade OPOW

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Amal BOU Saada36%

×Draw32%

MO Bejaia32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Amal BOU SaadaExpected goals in this matchMO Bejaia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

0.90

Amal BOU Saada

0.98

MO Bejaia

0.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

1.40

creates per match

1.00

0.80

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Amal BOU Saada

1.40

MO Bejaia

1.00

allows per match

Amal BOU Saada

0.80

MO Bejaia

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amal BOU Saada+0.00on par

MO Bejaia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amal BOU Saada ↓

MO Bejaia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Amal BOU Saada or draw

68%

Amal BOU Saada or MO Bejaia

68%

Draw or MO Bejaia

64%

Winning margin

Amal BOU Saada wins by 2+

14%

MO Bejaia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Amal BOU Saada 1+ goals

62%

Amal BOU Saada 2+ goals

26%

Amal BOU Saada 3+ goals

8%

MO Bejaia 1+ goals

59%

MO Bejaia 2+ goals

23%

MO Bejaia 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Amal BOU Saada (draw refunded)

53%

MO Bejaia (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amal BOU Saada at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

MO Bejaia away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amal BOU Saada attack 1.40 + MO Bejaia defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.98

MO Bejaia attack 1.00 + Amal BOU Saada defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Amal BOU Saada scores more

36%

level

32%

MO Bejaia scores more

32%

Amal BOU Saada at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Amal BOU Saada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

73'

Belouadah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff