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Aduana Stars vs Inter Allies — Premier League 2019

Aduana Stars
Aduana Stars
FT
4 – 0
Inter Allies
Inter Allies
12/29/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · 2020 - 1Agyeman Badu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Aduana Stars61%
×Draw25%
Inter Allies14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aduana Stars
1.56
Inter Allies
0.60

Aduana Stars creates 160% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 29 away

creates per match

Aduana Stars
1.46
Inter Allies
0.62

allows per match

Aduana Stars
0.59
Inter Allies
1.66

finishing

Aduana Stars+0.00on par
Inter Allies+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aduana Stars ↓

Inter Allies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Aduana Stars or draw
86%
Aduana Stars or Inter Allies
75%
Draw or Inter Allies
39%

Winning margin

Aduana Stars wins by 2+
33%
Inter Allies wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Aduana Stars 1+ goals
79%
Aduana Stars 2+ goals
46%
Aduana Stars 3+ goals
21%
Inter Allies 1+ goals
45%
Inter Allies 2+ goals
12%
Inter Allies 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Aduana Stars (draw refunded)
81%
Inter Allies (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aduana Stars at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.59 · 110 matches

Inter Allies away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.66 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aduana Stars attack 1.46 + Inter Allies defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.56

Inter Allies attack 0.62 + Aduana Stars defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Aduana Stars scores more
61%
level
25%
Inter Allies scores more
14%

Aduana Stars at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Aduana Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Recap: Aduana Stars vs Inter Allies

Aduana Stars beat Inter Allies 4-0 in Premier League on December 29, 2019.

The match was played at Agyeman Badu Stadium in Dormaa Ahenkro.