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Aduana Stars vs Inter Allies — Premier League 2019

Aduana Stars
Aduana Stars
FT
2 – 1
Inter Allies
Inter Allies
E. Adjetey 62' (OG)
M. Yahaya 44'
S. Armah 84'
2/24/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Agyeman Badu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Aduana Stars60%
×Draw26%
Inter Allies15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aduana Stars
1.52
Inter Allies
0.60

Aduana Stars creates 153% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 31 away

creates per match

Aduana Stars
1.46
Inter Allies
0.61

allows per match

Aduana Stars
0.59
Inter Allies
1.58

finishing

Aduana Stars+0.00on par
Inter Allies+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aduana Stars ↓

Inter Allies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Aduana Stars or draw
85%
Aduana Stars or Inter Allies
74%
Draw or Inter Allies
40%

Winning margin

Aduana Stars wins by 2+
32%
Inter Allies wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Aduana Stars 1+ goals
78%
Aduana Stars 2+ goals
45%
Aduana Stars 3+ goals
20%
Inter Allies 1+ goals
45%
Inter Allies 2+ goals
12%
Inter Allies 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Aduana Stars (draw refunded)
80%
Inter Allies (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aduana Stars at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.59 · 110 matches

Inter Allies away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aduana Stars attack 1.46 + Inter Allies defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.52

Inter Allies attack 0.61 + Aduana Stars defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Aduana Stars scores more
60%
level
26%
Inter Allies scores more
15%

Aduana Stars at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Aduana Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
P. Acquah
36'
H. Musah← H. Musah
44'
M. Yahaya
59'
K. Kingsley Fidelis← K. Kingsley Fidelis
62'
E. AdjeteyOwn goal
68'
S. Nafui← S. Nafui
84'
S. Armah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aduana Stars vs Inter Allies

Aduana Stars beat Inter Allies 2-1 in Premier League on February 24, 2021.

Goals: M. Yahaya (44'), E. Adjetey (62' o.g.), S. Armah (84').

The match was played at Agyeman Badu Stadium in Dormaa Ahenkro.