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Mladost Ždralovi vs Kustosija — Second NL 2022

Mladost Ždralovi
Mladost Ždralovi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kustosija
Kustosija
10/4/2024Second NLSecond NL · Round 7Igralište NK Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mladost Ždralovi44%
×Draw25%
Kustosija31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Ždralovi
1.58
Kustosija
1.29

Mladost Ždralovi creates 22% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

creates per match

Mladost Ždralovi
1.93
Kustosija
1.78

allows per match

Mladost Ždralovi
0.80
Kustosija
1.24

finishing

Mladost Ždralovi+0.00on par
Kustosija+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Ždralovi ↓

Kustosija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Mladost Ždralovi or draw
69%
Mladost Ždralovi or Kustosija
75%
Draw or Kustosija
56%

Winning margin

Mladost Ždralovi wins by 2+
22%
Kustosija wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mladost Ždralovi 1+ goals
79%
Mladost Ždralovi 2+ goals
47%
Mladost Ždralovi 3+ goals
21%
Kustosija 1+ goals
72%
Kustosija 2+ goals
37%
Kustosija 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mladost Ždralovi (draw refunded)
59%
Kustosija (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Ždralovi at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.80 · 60 matches

Kustosija away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Ždralovi attack 1.93 + Kustosija defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.58

Kustosija attack 1.78 + Mladost Ždralovi defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mladost Ždralovi scores more
44%
level
25%
Kustosija scores more
31%

Mladost Ždralovi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mladost Ždralovi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladost Ždralovi vs Kustosija

Mladost Ždralovi and Kustosija drew 1-1 in Second NL on October 4, 2024.

The match was played at Igralište NK Mladost in Ždralovi.