Kustosija 2–1 Mladost Ždralovi: Result & Stats

Kustosija

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Mladost Ždralovi

4/4/2025

Second NL · Round 22Igralište NK Kustošija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Kustosija46%

×Draw26%

Mladost Ždralovi28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KustosijaExpected goals in this matchMladost Ždralovi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.10

Kustosija

1.50

Mladost Ždralovi

1.10

Kustosija creates 36% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

1.93

creates per match

1.50

0.71

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Kustosija

1.93

Mladost Ždralovi

1.50

allows per match

Kustosija

0.71

Mladost Ždralovi

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kustosija+0.00on par

Mladost Ždralovi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kustosija ↓

Mladost Ždralovi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Kustosija or draw

72%

Kustosija or Mladost Ždralovi

74%

Draw or Mladost Ždralovi

54%

Winning margin

Kustosija wins by 2+

23%

Mladost Ždralovi wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kustosija 1+ goals

78%

Kustosija 2+ goals

44%

Kustosija 3+ goals

19%

Mladost Ždralovi 1+ goals

67%

Mladost Ždralovi 2+ goals

30%

Mladost Ždralovi 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kustosija (draw refunded)

63%

Mladost Ždralovi (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kustosija at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

Mladost Ždralovi away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.08 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kustosija attack 1.93 + Mladost Ždralovi defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.50

Mladost Ždralovi attack 1.50 + Kustosija defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kustosija scores more

46%

level

26%

Mladost Ždralovi scores more

28%

Kustosija at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kustosija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff