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Mladost Ždralovi vs Karlovac 1919 — Second NL 2022

Mladost Ždralovi
Mladost Ždralovi
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Karlovac 1919
Karlovac 1919
2/24/2024Second NLSecond NL · Round 16Igralište NK Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Mladost Ždralovi48%
×Draw26%
Karlovac 191926%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Ždralovi
1.48
Karlovac 1919
1.03

Mladost Ždralovi creates 44% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 31 away

creates per match

Mladost Ždralovi
1.93
Karlovac 1919
1.26

allows per match

Mladost Ždralovi
0.80
Karlovac 1919
1.03

finishing

Mladost Ždralovi+0.00on par
Karlovac 1919+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Ždralovi ↓

Karlovac 1919 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mladost Ždralovi or draw
74%
Mladost Ždralovi or Karlovac 1919
74%
Draw or Karlovac 1919
52%

Winning margin

Mladost Ždralovi wins by 2+
24%
Karlovac 1919 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mladost Ždralovi 1+ goals
77%
Mladost Ždralovi 2+ goals
43%
Mladost Ždralovi 3+ goals
19%
Karlovac 1919 1+ goals
64%
Karlovac 1919 2+ goals
28%
Karlovac 1919 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mladost Ždralovi (draw refunded)
64%
Karlovac 1919 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Ždralovi at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.80 · 60 matches

Karlovac 1919 away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Ždralovi attack 1.93 + Karlovac 1919 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.48

Karlovac 1919 attack 1.26 + Mladost Ždralovi defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mladost Ždralovi scores more
48%
level
26%
Karlovac 1919 scores more
26%

Mladost Ždralovi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mladost Ždralovi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Mladost Ždralovi 2–3 Karlovac 1919

Karlovac 1919 beat Mladost Ždralovi 3-2 in Second NL on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Igralište NK Mladost in Ždralovi.