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Karlovac 1919 vs Mladost Ždralovi — Second NL 2022

Karlovac 1919
Karlovac 1919
FT
3 – 2
Mladost Ždralovi
Mladost Ždralovi
8/19/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 1Stadion Branko Čavlović-Čavlek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Karlovac 191945%
×Draw26%
Mladost Ždralovi29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karlovac 1919
1.48
Mladost Ždralovi
1.12

Karlovac 1919 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 60 away

creates per match

Karlovac 1919
1.87
Mladost Ždralovi
1.50

allows per match

Karlovac 1919
0.74
Mladost Ždralovi
1.08

finishing

Karlovac 1919+0.00on par
Mladost Ždralovi+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlovac 1919 ↓

Mladost Ždralovi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Karlovac 1919 or draw
71%
Karlovac 1919 or Mladost Ždralovi
74%
Draw or Mladost Ždralovi
55%

Winning margin

Karlovac 1919 wins by 2+
22%
Mladost Ždralovi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Karlovac 1919 1+ goals
77%
Karlovac 1919 2+ goals
43%
Karlovac 1919 3+ goals
19%
Mladost Ždralovi 1+ goals
67%
Mladost Ždralovi 2+ goals
31%
Mladost Ždralovi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Karlovac 1919 (draw refunded)
61%
Mladost Ždralovi (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlovac 1919 at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.74 · 31 matches

Mladost Ždralovi away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.08 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlovac 1919 attack 1.87 + Mladost Ždralovi defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.48

Mladost Ždralovi attack 1.50 + Karlovac 1919 defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Karlovac 1919 scores more
45%
level
26%
Mladost Ždralovi scores more
29%

Karlovac 1919 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Karlovac 1919 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karlovac 1919 vs Mladost Ždralovi

Karlovac 1919 beat Mladost Ždralovi 3-2 in Second NL on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Branko Čavlović-Čavlek in Karlovac.