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Mladost Ždralovi vs Jadran Poreč — Second NL 2022

Mladost Ždralovi
Mladost Ždralovi
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Jadran Poreč
Jadran Poreč
N. Maric 83', 35'
D. Sekulic 74'
A. Peric 57'
I. Al Tharwan 30' (pen)
3/7/2025Second NLSecond NL · Round 18Igralište NK Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mladost Ždralovi69%
×Draw18%
Jadran Poreč13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Ždralovi
2.33
Jadran Poreč
0.90

Mladost Ždralovi creates 159% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

creates per match

Mladost Ždralovi
1.93
Jadran Poreč
1.00

allows per match

Mladost Ždralovi
0.80
Jadran Poreč
2.73

finishing

Mladost Ždralovi+0.00on par
Jadran Poreč+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Ždralovi ↓

Jadran Poreč →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Mladost Ždralovi or draw
87%
Mladost Ždralovi or Jadran Poreč
82%
Draw or Jadran Poreč
31%

Winning margin

Mladost Ždralovi wins by 2+
46%
Jadran Poreč wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Mladost Ždralovi 1+ goals
90%
Mladost Ždralovi 2+ goals
67%
Mladost Ždralovi 3+ goals
41%
Jadran Poreč 1+ goals
59%
Jadran Poreč 2+ goals
23%
Jadran Poreč 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mladost Ždralovi (draw refunded)
84%
Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Ždralovi at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.80 · 60 matches

Jadran Poreč away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Ždralovi attack 1.93 + Jadran Poreč defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.33

Jadran Poreč attack 1.00 + Mladost Ždralovi defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Mladost Ždralovi scores more
69%
level
18%
Jadran Poreč scores more
13%

Mladost Ždralovi at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Mladost Ždralovi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
I. Al TharwanPenalty
35'
N. Maric
57'
A. Peric
74'
D. Sekulic
83'
N. Maric

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladost Ždralovi vs Jadran Poreč

Mladost Ždralovi beat Jadran Poreč 4-1 in Second NL on March 7, 2025.

Goals: I. Al Tharwan (30' pen), N. Maric (35', 83'), A. Peric (57'), D. Sekulic (74').

The match was played at Igralište NK Mladost in Ždralovi.