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Jadran Poreč vs Mladost Ždralovi — Second NL 2022

Jadran Poreč
Jadran Poreč
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Mladost Ždralovi
Mladost Ždralovi
9/2/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 3Stadion Veli Jože

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Jadran Poreč32%
×Draw25%
Mladost Ždralovi43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jadran Poreč
1.29
Mladost Ždralovi
1.53

Mladost Ždralovi creates 19% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

creates per match

Jadran Poreč
1.49
Mladost Ždralovi
1.50

allows per match

Jadran Poreč
1.56
Mladost Ždralovi
1.08

finishing

Jadran Poreč+0.00on par
Mladost Ždralovi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran Poreč ↓

Mladost Ždralovi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Jadran Poreč or draw
57%
Jadran Poreč or Mladost Ždralovi
75%
Draw or Mladost Ždralovi
68%

Winning margin

Jadran Poreč wins by 2+
14%
Mladost Ždralovi wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Jadran Poreč 1+ goals
72%
Jadran Poreč 2+ goals
37%
Jadran Poreč 3+ goals
14%
Mladost Ždralovi 1+ goals
78%
Mladost Ždralovi 2+ goals
45%
Mladost Ždralovi 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)
43%
Mladost Ždralovi (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran Poreč at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

Mladost Ždralovi away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.08 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran Poreč attack 1.49 + Mladost Ždralovi defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.29

Mladost Ždralovi attack 1.50 + Jadran Poreč defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jadran Poreč scores more
32%
level
25%
Mladost Ždralovi scores more
43%

Mladost Ždralovi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mladost Ždralovi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Jadran Poreč 0–4 Mladost Ždralovi

Mladost Ždralovi beat Jadran Poreč 4-0 in Second NL on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Veli Jože in Poreč.