Mladost Ždralovi 1–0 Hrvace: Result & Stats

Mladost Ždralovi

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hrvace

11/24/2023

Second NL · Round 15Igralište NK Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mladost Ždralovi53%

×Draw23%

Hrvace24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladost ŽdraloviExpected goals in this matchHrvace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.15

Mladost Ždralovi

1.83

Hrvace

1.15

Mladost Ždralovi creates 59% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

1.93

creates per match

1.49

0.80

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Mladost Ždralovi

1.93

Hrvace

1.49

allows per match

Mladost Ždralovi

0.80

Hrvace

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladost Ždralovi+0.00on par

Hrvace+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Ždralovi ↓

Hrvace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Mladost Ždralovi or draw

76%

Mladost Ždralovi or Hrvace

77%

Draw or Hrvace

47%

Winning margin

Mladost Ždralovi wins by 2+

30%

Hrvace wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Mladost Ždralovi 1+ goals

84%

Mladost Ždralovi 2+ goals

54%

Mladost Ždralovi 3+ goals

28%

Hrvace 1+ goals

68%

Hrvace 2+ goals

32%

Hrvace 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Mladost Ždralovi (draw refunded)

69%

Hrvace (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Ždralovi at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.80 · 60 matches

Hrvace away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Ždralovi attack 1.93 + Hrvace defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.83

Hrvace attack 1.49 + Mladost Ždralovi defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mladost Ždralovi scores more

53%

level

23%

Hrvace scores more

24%

Mladost Ždralovi at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mladost Ždralovi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff