Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hrvace vs Mladost Ždralovi — Second NL 2022

Hrvace
Hrvace
FT
1 – 4
Mladost Ždralovi
Mladost Ždralovi
5/4/2025Second NLSecond NL · Round 26Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Hrvace40%
×Draw24%
Mladost Ždralovi37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hrvace
1.63
Mladost Ždralovi
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

creates per match

Hrvace
2.18
Mladost Ždralovi
1.50

allows per match

Hrvace
1.60
Mladost Ždralovi
1.08

finishing

Hrvace+0.00on par
Mladost Ždralovi+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvace ↓

Mladost Ždralovi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hrvace or draw
63%
Hrvace or Mladost Ždralovi
76%
Draw or Mladost Ždralovi
60%

Winning margin

Hrvace wins by 2+
20%
Mladost Ždralovi wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hrvace 1+ goals
80%
Hrvace 2+ goals
48%
Hrvace 3+ goals
22%
Mladost Ždralovi 1+ goals
79%
Mladost Ždralovi 2+ goals
46%
Mladost Ždralovi 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Hrvace (draw refunded)
52%
Mladost Ždralovi (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvace at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

Mladost Ždralovi away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.08 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvace attack 2.18 + Mladost Ždralovi defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.63

Mladost Ždralovi attack 1.50 + Hrvace defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hrvace scores more
40%
level
24%
Mladost Ždralovi scores more
37%

Hrvace at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hrvace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Hrvace 1–4 Mladost Ždralovi

Mladost Ždralovi beat Hrvace 4-1 in Second NL on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Hrvace.