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Mladost Ždralovi vs Grobničan Čavle — Second NL 2022

Mladost Ždralovi
Mladost Ždralovi
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Grobničan Čavle
Grobničan Čavle
4/11/2025Second NLSecond NL · Round 23Igralište NK Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Mladost Ždralovi62%
×Draw22%
Grobničan Čavle17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Ždralovi
1.93
Grobničan Čavle
0.89

Mladost Ždralovi creates 117% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

creates per match

Mladost Ždralovi
1.93
Grobničan Čavle
0.98

allows per match

Mladost Ždralovi
0.80
Grobničan Čavle
1.93

finishing

Mladost Ždralovi+0.00on par
Grobničan Čavle+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Ždralovi ↓

Grobničan Čavle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Mladost Ždralovi or draw
83%
Mladost Ždralovi or Grobničan Čavle
78%
Draw or Grobničan Čavle
38%

Winning margin

Mladost Ždralovi wins by 2+
37%
Grobničan Čavle wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mladost Ždralovi 1+ goals
85%
Mladost Ždralovi 2+ goals
57%
Mladost Ždralovi 3+ goals
30%
Grobničan Čavle 1+ goals
59%
Grobničan Čavle 2+ goals
22%
Grobničan Čavle 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mladost Ždralovi (draw refunded)
79%
Grobničan Čavle (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Ždralovi at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.80 · 60 matches

Grobničan Čavle away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Ždralovi attack 1.93 + Grobničan Čavle defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.93

Grobničan Čavle attack 0.98 + Mladost Ždralovi defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Mladost Ždralovi scores more
62%
level
22%
Grobničan Čavle scores more
17%

Mladost Ždralovi at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Mladost Ždralovi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladost Ždralovi vs Grobničan Čavle

Mladost Ždralovi and Grobničan Čavle drew 0-0 in Second NL on April 11, 2025.

The match was played at Igralište NK Mladost in Ždralovi.