Grobničan Čavle 2–3 Mladost Ždralovi

Grobničan Čavle

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Mladost Ždralovi

2/21/2026

Second NL · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Grobničan Čavle36%

×Draw25%

Mladost Ždralovi39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Grobničan ČavleExpected goals in this matchMladost Ždralovi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.49

Grobničan Čavle

1.43

Mladost Ždralovi

1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

1.78

creates per match

1.50

1.48

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Grobničan Čavle

1.78

Mladost Ždralovi

1.50

allows per match

Grobničan Čavle

1.48

Mladost Ždralovi

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grobničan Čavle+0.00on par

Mladost Ždralovi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grobničan Čavle ↓

Mladost Ždralovi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Grobničan Čavle or draw

61%

Grobničan Čavle or Mladost Ždralovi

75%

Draw or Mladost Ždralovi

64%

Winning margin

Grobničan Čavle wins by 2+

17%

Mladost Ždralovi wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Grobničan Čavle 1+ goals

76%

Grobničan Čavle 2+ goals

42%

Grobničan Čavle 3+ goals

17%

Mladost Ždralovi 1+ goals

77%

Mladost Ždralovi 2+ goals

44%

Mladost Ždralovi 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Grobničan Čavle (draw refunded)

48%

Mladost Ždralovi (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grobničan Čavle at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.48 · 60 matches

Mladost Ždralovi away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.08 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grobničan Čavle attack 1.78 + Mladost Ždralovi defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.43

Mladost Ždralovi attack 1.50 + Grobničan Čavle defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Grobničan Čavle scores more

36%

level

25%

Mladost Ždralovi scores more

39%

Mladost Ždralovi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mladost Ždralovi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff