Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mladost Novi Sad vs Loznica — Prva Liga 2018

Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Loznica
Loznica
3/13/2022Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 25Stadion FK Mladost Novi Sad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Mladost Novi Sad46%
×Draw29%
Loznica25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Novi Sad
1.23
Loznica
0.83

Mladost Novi Sad creates 48% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 73 away

creates per match

Mladost Novi Sad
1.29
Loznica
0.78

allows per match

Mladost Novi Sad
0.89
Loznica
1.16

finishing

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par
Loznica+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Novi Sad ↓

Loznica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mladost Novi Sad or draw
75%
Mladost Novi Sad or Loznica
71%
Draw or Loznica
54%

Winning margin

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
20%
Loznica wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
71%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
35%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
13%
Loznica 1+ goals
56%
Loznica 2+ goals
20%
Loznica 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
65%
Loznica (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Novi Sad at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.89 · 56 matches

Loznica away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.16 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Novi Sad attack 1.29 + Loznica defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

Loznica attack 0.78 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mladost Novi Sad scores more
46%
level
29%
Loznica scores more
25%

Mladost Novi Sad at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Mladost Novi Sad 0–0 Loznica

Mladost Novi Sad and Loznica drew 0-0 in Prva Liga on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Mladost Novi Sad in Novi Sad.