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Loznica vs Mladost Novi Sad — Prva Liga 2018

Loznica
Loznica
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
5/2/2022Prva LigaPrva Liga · Championship Round - 4Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Loznica39%
×Draw29%
Mladost Novi Sad32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loznica
1.16
Mladost Novi Sad
1.02

Loznica creates 14% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 55 away

creates per match

Loznica
1.54
Mladost Novi Sad
0.98

allows per match

Loznica
1.07
Mladost Novi Sad
0.78

finishing

Loznica+0.00on par
Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loznica ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Loznica or draw
68%
Loznica or Mladost Novi Sad
71%
Draw or Mladost Novi Sad
61%

Winning margin

Loznica wins by 2+
16%
Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Loznica 1+ goals
69%
Loznica 2+ goals
32%
Loznica 3+ goals
11%
Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
64%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
27%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Loznica (draw refunded)
55%
Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loznica at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 0.98, concedes 0.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loznica attack 1.54 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.16

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.98 + Loznica defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Loznica scores more
39%
level
29%
Mladost Novi Sad scores more
32%

Loznica at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Loznica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Loznica 0–2 Mladost Novi Sad

Mladost Novi Sad beat Loznica 2-0 in Prva Liga on May 2, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Klupci.