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Mladost Novi Sad vs IMT Novi Beograd — Prva Liga 2018

Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
IMT Novi Beograd
IMT Novi Beograd
5/21/2022Prva LigaPrva Liga · Championship Round - 7Stadion FK Mladost Novi Sad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Mladost Novi Sad36%
×Draw27%
IMT Novi Beograd37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Novi Sad
1.20
IMT Novi Beograd
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 54 away

creates per match

Mladost Novi Sad
1.29
IMT Novi Beograd
1.57

allows per match

Mladost Novi Sad
0.89
IMT Novi Beograd
1.11

finishing

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par
IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Novi Sad ↓

IMT Novi Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mladost Novi Sad or draw
63%
Mladost Novi Sad or IMT Novi Beograd
73%
Draw or IMT Novi Beograd
64%

Winning margin

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
15%
IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
70%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
34%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
12%
IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals
71%
IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals
35%
IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
49%
IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Novi Sad at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.89 · 56 matches

IMT Novi Beograd away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.11 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Novi Sad attack 1.29 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.57 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mladost Novi Sad scores more
36%
level
27%
IMT Novi Beograd scores more
37%

IMT Novi Beograd at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "IMT Novi Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladost Novi Sad vs IMT Novi Beograd

IMT Novi Beograd beat Mladost Novi Sad 3-2 in Prva Liga on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Mladost Novi Sad in Novi Sad.