IMT Novi Beograd 0–1 Mladost Novi Sad

IMT Novi Beograd

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mladost Novi Sad

9/3/2021

Prva Liga · Round 5Stadion FK IMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

IMT Novi Beograd46%

×Draw28%

Mladost Novi Sad26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IMT Novi BeogradExpected goals in this matchMladost Novi Sad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.94

IMT Novi Beograd

1.35

Mladost Novi Sad

0.94

IMT Novi Beograd creates 44% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 55 away

1.93

creates per match

0.98

0.89

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

IMT Novi Beograd

1.93

Mladost Novi Sad

0.98

allows per match

IMT Novi Beograd

0.89

Mladost Novi Sad

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IMT Novi Beograd ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

IMT Novi Beograd or draw

74%

IMT Novi Beograd or Mladost Novi Sad

72%

Draw or Mladost Novi Sad

54%

Winning margin

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+

22%

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals

74%

IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals

39%

IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals

15%

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals

61%

Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals

24%

Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)

64%

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IMT Novi Beograd at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.89 · 54 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 0.98, concedes 0.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.93 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.35

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.98 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

IMT Novi Beograd scores more

46%

level

28%

Mladost Novi Sad scores more

26%

IMT Novi Beograd at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "IMT Novi Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff