Mladost Novi Sad 1–2 Grafičar: Result & Stats

Mladost Novi Sad

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Grafičar

5/24/2025

Prva Liga · Championship Round - 7GAT Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Mladost Novi Sad44%

×Draw28%

Grafičar28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladost Novi SadExpected goals in this matchGrafičar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.01

Mladost Novi Sad

1.33

Grafičar

1.01

Mladost Novi Sad creates 32% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 125 away

1.29

creates per match

1.14

0.89

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Mladost Novi Sad

1.29

Grafičar

1.14

allows per match

Mladost Novi Sad

0.89

Grafičar

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Grafičar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Novi Sad ↓

Grafičar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Mladost Novi Sad or draw

72%

Mladost Novi Sad or Grafičar

72%

Draw or Grafičar

56%

Winning margin

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+

20%

Grafičar wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals

74%

Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals

38%

Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals

15%

Grafičar 1+ goals

64%

Grafičar 2+ goals

27%

Grafičar 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)

61%

Grafičar (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Novi Sad at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.89 · 56 matches

Grafičar away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.38 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Novi Sad attack 1.29 + Grafičar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Grafičar attack 1.14 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mladost Novi Sad scores more

44%

level

28%

Grafičar scores more

28%

Mladost Novi Sad at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff