Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Grafičar vs Mladost Novi Sad — Prva Liga 2018

Grafičar
Grafičar
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
3/30/2024Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 27Rajko Mitić - Jug veštačka trava 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Grafičar43%
×Draw28%
Mladost Novi Sad29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grafičar
1.27
Mladost Novi Sad
0.98

Grafičar creates 30% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 55 away

creates per match

Grafičar
1.75
Mladost Novi Sad
0.98

allows per match

Grafičar
0.98
Mladost Novi Sad
0.78

finishing

Grafičar+0.00on par
Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grafičar ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Grafičar or draw
71%
Grafičar or Mladost Novi Sad
72%
Draw or Mladost Novi Sad
57%

Winning margin

Grafičar wins by 2+
19%
Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Grafičar 1+ goals
72%
Grafičar 2+ goals
36%
Grafičar 3+ goals
14%
Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
62%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
26%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Grafičar (draw refunded)
60%
Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grafičar at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.98 · 126 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 0.98, concedes 0.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grafičar attack 1.75 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.27

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.98 + Grafičar defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Grafičar scores more
43%
level
28%
Mladost Novi Sad scores more
29%

Grafičar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Grafičar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grafičar 2 – 1 Mladost Novi Sad

Grafičar beat Mladost Novi Sad 2-1 in Prva Liga on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Rajko Mitić - Jug veštačka trava 4 in Beograd.