Mladost Novi Sad 1–2 FK Vozdovac: Result & Stats

Mladost Novi Sad

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FK Vozdovac

11/4/2022

Super Liga · Round 18Stadion Karađorđe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mladost Novi Sad36%

×Draw29%

FK Vozdovac35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladost Novi SadExpected goals in this matchFK Vozdovac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.13

Mladost Novi Sad

1.14

FK Vozdovac

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 109 away

0.63

creates per match

0.89

1.37

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Mladost Novi Sad

0.63

FK Vozdovac

0.89

allows per match

Mladost Novi Sad

1.37

FK Vozdovac

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

FK Vozdovac+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Novi Sad ↓

FK Vozdovac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mladost Novi Sad or draw

65%

Mladost Novi Sad or FK Vozdovac

71%

Draw or FK Vozdovac

64%

Winning margin

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+

15%

FK Vozdovac wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals

68%

Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals

32%

Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals

11%

FK Vozdovac 1+ goals

68%

FK Vozdovac 2+ goals

31%

FK Vozdovac 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)

50%

FK Vozdovac (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Novi Sad at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

FK Vozdovac away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.65 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.63 + FK Vozdovac defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.14

FK Vozdovac attack 0.89 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Mladost Novi Sad scores more

36%

level

29%

FK Vozdovac scores more

35%

Mladost Novi Sad at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff