FK Vozdovac 0–0 Mladost Novi Sad: Result & Stats

FK Vozdovac

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mladost Novi Sad

7/24/2022

Super Liga · Round 3Stadion Event Place

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

FK Vozdovac47%

×Draw28%

Mladost Novi Sad25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK VozdovacExpected goals in this matchMladost Novi Sad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.90

FK Vozdovac

1.33

Mladost Novi Sad

0.90

FK Vozdovac creates 48% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 20 away

1.46

creates per match

0.65

1.15

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

FK Vozdovac

1.46

Mladost Novi Sad

0.65

allows per match

FK Vozdovac

1.15

Mladost Novi Sad

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Vozdovac+0.00on par

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Vozdovac ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

FK Vozdovac or draw

75%

FK Vozdovac or Mladost Novi Sad

72%

Draw or Mladost Novi Sad

53%

Winning margin

FK Vozdovac wins by 2+

22%

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FK Vozdovac 1+ goals

74%

FK Vozdovac 2+ goals

38%

FK Vozdovac 3+ goals

15%

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals

59%

Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals

23%

Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FK Vozdovac (draw refunded)

65%

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Vozdovac at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.15 · 107 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Vozdovac attack 1.46 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.33

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.65 + FK Vozdovac defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FK Vozdovac scores more

47%

level

28%

Mladost Novi Sad scores more

25%

FK Vozdovac at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FK Vozdovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff