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Mladost Novi Sad vs FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV — Super Liga 2018

Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
5/7/2023Super LigaSuper Liga · Relegation Round - 4Stadion Karađorđe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mladost Novi Sad33%
×Draw29%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Novi Sad
1.08
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 145 away

creates per match

Mladost Novi Sad
0.63
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
0.97

allows per match

Mladost Novi Sad
1.37
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.53

finishing

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Novi Sad ↓

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mladost Novi Sad or draw
62%
Mladost Novi Sad or FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
71%
Draw or FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
67%

Winning margin

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
13%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
66%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
29%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
10%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1+ goals
69%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 2+ goals
33%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
47%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Novi Sad at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.53 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.63 + FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.08

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV attack 0.97 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mladost Novi Sad scores more
33%
level
29%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV scores more
38%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mladost Novi Sad 1 – 1 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

Mladost Novi Sad and FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV drew 1-1 in Super Liga on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Karađorđe in Novi Sad.