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FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV vs Mladost Novi Sad — Super Liga 2018

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
3/11/2023Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 26Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV41%
×Draw28%
Mladost Novi Sad31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.26
Mladost Novi Sad
1.04

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV creates 21% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 20 away

creates per match

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.32
Mladost Novi Sad
0.65

allows per match

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.43
Mladost Novi Sad
1.20

finishing

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV+0.00on par
Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV or draw
69%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV or Mladost Novi Sad
72%
Draw or Mladost Novi Sad
59%

Winning margin

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV wins by 2+
18%
Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1+ goals
72%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 2+ goals
36%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 3+ goals
13%
Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
65%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
28%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV (draw refunded)
58%
Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.43 · 145 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV attack 1.32 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.26

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.65 + FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV scores more
41%
level
28%
Mladost Novi Sad scores more
31%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV vs Mladost Novi Sad

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV and Mladost Novi Sad drew 0-0 in Super Liga on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Subotica.