Mladost Novi Sad 0–1 FK Partizan: Result & Stats

Mladost Novi Sad

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FK Partizan

8/14/2022

Super Liga · Round 6Stadion Karađorđe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mladost Novi Sad18%

×Draw25%

FK Partizan57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladost Novi SadExpected goals in this matchFK Partizan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

1.64

Mladost Novi Sad

0.80

FK Partizan

1.64

FK Partizan creates 105% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 142 away

0.63

creates per match

1.90

1.37

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Mladost Novi Sad

0.63

FK Partizan

1.90

allows per match

Mladost Novi Sad

1.37

FK Partizan

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

FK Partizan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Novi Sad ↓

FK Partizan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–114%

0–212%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mladost Novi Sad or draw

43%

Mladost Novi Sad or FK Partizan

75%

Draw or FK Partizan

82%

Winning margin

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+

5%

FK Partizan wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals

55%

Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals

19%

Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals

5%

FK Partizan 1+ goals

81%

FK Partizan 2+ goals

49%

FK Partizan 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)

24%

FK Partizan (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Novi Sad at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

FK Partizan away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.97 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.63 + FK Partizan defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.80

FK Partizan attack 1.90 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mladost Novi Sad scores more

18%

level

25%

FK Partizan scores more

57%

FK Partizan at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "FK Partizan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladost Novi Sad vs FK Partizan

FK Partizan beat Mladost Novi Sad 1-0 in Super Liga on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Karađorđe in Novi Sad.

Mladost Novi Sad vs FK Partizan — Super Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Mladost Novi Sad vs FK Partizan