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FK Partizan vs Mladost Novi Sad — Super Liga 2018

FK Partizan
FK Partizan
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
2/11/2023Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 21Stadion Partizana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

FK Partizan61%
×Draw24%
Mladost Novi Sad15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Partizan
1.71
Mladost Novi Sad
0.72

FK Partizan creates 138% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 20 away

creates per match

FK Partizan
2.23
Mladost Novi Sad
0.65

allows per match

FK Partizan
0.78
Mladost Novi Sad
1.20

finishing

FK Partizan+0.00on par
Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Partizan ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FK Partizan or draw
85%
FK Partizan or Mladost Novi Sad
76%
Draw or Mladost Novi Sad
39%

Winning margin

FK Partizan wins by 2+
35%
Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FK Partizan 1+ goals
82%
FK Partizan 2+ goals
51%
FK Partizan 3+ goals
24%
Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
51%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
16%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FK Partizan (draw refunded)
80%
Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Partizan at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.78 · 148 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Partizan attack 2.23 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.71

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.65 + FK Partizan defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

FK Partizan scores more
61%
level
24%
Mladost Novi Sad scores more
15%

FK Partizan at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "FK Partizan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Partizan vs Mladost Novi Sad

Mladost Novi Sad beat FK Partizan 4-0 in Super Liga on February 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Partizana in Beograd.