Mladost Novi Sad vs FK Crvena Zvezda — Super Liga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 19+ matches
Mladost Novi Sad13%
FK Crvena Zvezda67%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FK Crvena Zvezda creates 179% more chances
Season form · 19 home / 142 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- No57
- Yes43
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Mladost Novi Sad ↓
Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Mladost Novi Sad at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches
FK Crvena Zvezda away — creates 2.53, concedes 0.76 · 142 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.63 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.70
FK Crvena Zvezda attack 2.53 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.95
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 67%?"
FK Crvena Zvezda at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 67% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
FK Crvena Zvezda
Radnicki NIS
FK Partizan
Cukaricki
Mladost Lucani
Napredak
Vojvodina
Proleter Novi SAD
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
Radnik Surdulica
FK Vozdovac
Macva
Backa
RAD
Dinamo Vranje
ZemunIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Mladost Novi Sad host FK Crvena Zvezda on Sunday, 2 October 2022 at 15:00. The match is part of the Super Liga 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Mladost Novi Sad vs FK Crvena Zvezda
FK Crvena Zvezda beat Mladost Novi Sad 4-0 in Super Liga on October 2, 2022.
The match was played at Stadion Karađorđe in Novi Sad.