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FK Crvena Zvezda vs Mladost Novi Sad — Super Liga 2018

FK Crvena Zvezda
FK Crvena Zvezda
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
4/1/2023Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 28Stadion Rajko Mitić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

FK Crvena Zvezda71%
×Draw19%
Mladost Novi Sad10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Crvena Zvezda
2.05
Mladost Novi Sad
0.61

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 236% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 20 away

creates per match

FK Crvena Zvezda
2.90
Mladost Novi Sad
0.65

allows per match

FK Crvena Zvezda
0.57
Mladost Novi Sad
1.20

finishing

FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par
Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Crvena Zvezda ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FK Crvena Zvezda or draw
90%
FK Crvena Zvezda or Mladost Novi Sad
81%
Draw or Mladost Novi Sad
29%

Winning margin

FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+
46%
Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals
87%
FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals
61%
FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals
33%
Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
46%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
13%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)
88%
Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Crvena Zvezda at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.57 · 148 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 2.90 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 2.05

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.65 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

FK Crvena Zvezda scores more
71%
level
19%
Mladost Novi Sad scores more
10%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Crvena Zvezda vs Mladost Novi Sad

FK Crvena Zvezda beat Mladost Novi Sad 4-2 in Super Liga on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Rajko Mitić in Beograd.