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Mladost Novi Sad vs Dunav Stari Banovci — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
FT
8 – 0
Dunav Stari Banovci
Dunav Stari Banovci
10/17/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 13Stadion FK Mladost Novi Sad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mladost Novi Sad85%
×Draw10%
Dunav Stari Banovci5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Novi Sad
3.00
Dunav Stari Banovci
0.57

Mladost Novi Sad creates 426% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 28 away

creates per match

Mladost Novi Sad
3.26
Dunav Stari Banovci
0.57

allows per match

Mladost Novi Sad
0.58
Dunav Stari Banovci
2.75

finishing

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par
Dunav Stari Banovci+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Novi Sad ↓

Dunav Stari Banovci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Mladost Novi Sad or draw
95%
Mladost Novi Sad or Dunav Stari Banovci
90%
Draw or Dunav Stari Banovci
15%

Winning margin

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
66%
Dunav Stari Banovci wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
95%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
79%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
56%
Dunav Stari Banovci 1+ goals
43%
Dunav Stari Banovci 2+ goals
11%
Dunav Stari Banovci 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
95%
Dunav Stari Banovci (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Novi Sad at home — creates 3.26, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Dunav Stari Banovci away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.75 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Novi Sad attack 3.26 + Dunav Stari Banovci defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 3.00

Dunav Stari Banovci attack 0.57 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Mladost Novi Sad scores more
85%
level
10%
Dunav Stari Banovci scores more
5%

Mladost Novi Sad at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladost Novi Sad vs Dunav Stari Banovci

Mladost Novi Sad beat Dunav Stari Banovci 8-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Mladost Novi Sad in Novi Sad.