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Dunav Stari Banovci vs Mladost Novi Sad — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Dunav Stari Banovci
Dunav Stari Banovci
FT
1 – 4
Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
5/1/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 32Stadion Pod Bairom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dunav Stari Banovci22%
×Draw22%
Mladost Novi Sad56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Stari Banovci
1.09
Mladost Novi Sad
1.90

Mladost Novi Sad creates 74% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 19 away

creates per match

Dunav Stari Banovci
1.30
Mladost Novi Sad
1.84

allows per match

Dunav Stari Banovci
1.96
Mladost Novi Sad
0.89

finishing

Dunav Stari Banovci+0.00on par
Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Stari Banovci ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dunav Stari Banovci or draw
44%
Dunav Stari Banovci or Mladost Novi Sad
78%
Draw or Mladost Novi Sad
78%

Winning margin

Dunav Stari Banovci wins by 2+
8%
Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Dunav Stari Banovci 1+ goals
66%
Dunav Stari Banovci 2+ goals
30%
Dunav Stari Banovci 3+ goals
10%
Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
85%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
56%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Dunav Stari Banovci (draw refunded)
28%
Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Stari Banovci at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.96 · 27 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 1.84, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Stari Banovci attack 1.30 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.09

Mladost Novi Sad attack 1.84 + Dunav Stari Banovci defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dunav Stari Banovci scores more
22%
level
22%
Mladost Novi Sad scores more
56%

Mladost Novi Sad at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dunav Stari Banovci vs Mladost Novi Sad

Mladost Novi Sad beat Dunav Stari Banovci 4-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Bairom in Stari Banovci.