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Mladost Novi Sad vs Bratstvo Prigrevica — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
FT
0 – 0
Bratstvo Prigrevica
Bratstvo Prigrevica
8/15/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 1Stadion FK Mladost Novi Sad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mladost Novi Sad68%
×Draw19%
Bratstvo Prigrevica13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Novi Sad
2.18
Bratstvo Prigrevica
0.81

Mladost Novi Sad creates 169% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 42 away

creates per match

Mladost Novi Sad
3.26
Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.05

allows per match

Mladost Novi Sad
0.58
Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.10

finishing

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par
Bratstvo Prigrevica+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Novi Sad ↓

Bratstvo Prigrevica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Mladost Novi Sad or draw
87%
Mladost Novi Sad or Bratstvo Prigrevica
81%
Draw or Bratstvo Prigrevica
32%

Winning margin

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
44%
Bratstvo Prigrevica wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
89%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
64%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
37%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 1+ goals
56%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 2+ goals
19%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
84%
Bratstvo Prigrevica (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Novi Sad at home — creates 3.26, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Bratstvo Prigrevica away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.10 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Novi Sad attack 3.26 + Bratstvo Prigrevica defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 2.18

Bratstvo Prigrevica attack 1.05 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Mladost Novi Sad scores more
68%
level
19%
Bratstvo Prigrevica scores more
13%

Mladost Novi Sad at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladost Novi Sad vs Bratstvo Prigrevica

Mladost Novi Sad and Bratstvo Prigrevica drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Mladost Novi Sad in Novi Sad.