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Bratstvo Prigrevica vs Mladost Novi Sad — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Bratstvo Prigrevica
Bratstvo Prigrevica
FT
2 – 2
Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
3/6/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 20Sportski centar Suvača

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bratstvo Prigrevica34%
×Draw26%
Mladost Novi Sad40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.30
Mladost Novi Sad
1.43

Mladost Novi Sad creates 10% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 19 away

creates per match

Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.72
Mladost Novi Sad
1.84

allows per match

Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.02
Mladost Novi Sad
0.89

finishing

Bratstvo Prigrevica+0.00on par
Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bratstvo Prigrevica ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bratstvo Prigrevica or draw
60%
Bratstvo Prigrevica or Mladost Novi Sad
74%
Draw or Mladost Novi Sad
66%

Winning margin

Bratstvo Prigrevica wins by 2+
15%
Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Bratstvo Prigrevica 1+ goals
73%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 2+ goals
37%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 3+ goals
14%
Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
76%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
42%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Bratstvo Prigrevica (draw refunded)
46%
Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bratstvo Prigrevica at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.02 · 43 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 1.84, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bratstvo Prigrevica attack 1.72 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.30

Mladost Novi Sad attack 1.84 + Bratstvo Prigrevica defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bratstvo Prigrevica scores more
34%
level
26%
Mladost Novi Sad scores more
40%

Mladost Novi Sad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Bratstvo Prigrevica 2–2 Mladost Novi Sad

Bratstvo Prigrevica and Mladost Novi Sad drew 2-2 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at Sportski centar Suvača in Pećinci.