Mladost Medoševac 2–4 Budućnost Popovac

Mladost Medoševac

FT

2 – 4

Budućnost Popovac

11/29/2020

Srpska Liga - East · East - 19Stadion FK Medoševac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mladost Medoševac40%

×Draw26%

Budućnost Popovac34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladost MedoševacExpected goals in this matchBudućnost Popovac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.25

Mladost Medoševac

1.39

Budućnost Popovac

1.25

Mladost Medoševac creates 11% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 87 away

1.32

creates per match

1.40

1.11

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Mladost Medoševac

1.32

Budućnost Popovac

1.40

allows per match

Mladost Medoševac

1.11

Budućnost Popovac

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladost Medoševac+0.00on par

Budućnost Popovac+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Medoševac ↓

Budućnost Popovac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Mladost Medoševac or draw

66%

Mladost Medoševac or Budućnost Popovac

74%

Draw or Budućnost Popovac

60%

Winning margin

Mladost Medoševac wins by 2+

19%

Budućnost Popovac wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mladost Medoševac 1+ goals

75%

Mladost Medoševac 2+ goals

40%

Mladost Medoševac 3+ goals

16%

Budućnost Popovac 1+ goals

71%

Budućnost Popovac 2+ goals

36%

Budućnost Popovac 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Mladost Medoševac (draw refunded)

54%

Budućnost Popovac (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Medoševac at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Budućnost Popovac away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.45 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Medoševac attack 1.32 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.39

Budućnost Popovac attack 1.40 + Mladost Medoševac defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mladost Medoševac scores more

40%

level

26%

Budućnost Popovac scores more

34%

Mladost Medoševac at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mladost Medoševac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff