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Budućnost Popovac vs Mladost Medoševac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Budućnost Popovac
Budućnost Popovac
FT
3 – 1
Mladost Medoševac
Mladost Medoševac
6/6/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 38Stadion Begavica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Budućnost Popovac59%
×Draw21%
Mladost Medoševac20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budućnost Popovac
2.10
Mladost Medoševac
1.14

Budućnost Popovac creates 84% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 19 away

creates per match

Budućnost Popovac
1.84
Mladost Medoševac
1.21

allows per match

Budućnost Popovac
1.07
Mladost Medoševac
2.37

finishing

Budućnost Popovac+0.00on par
Mladost Medoševac+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budućnost Popovac ↓

Mladost Medoševac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Budućnost Popovac or draw
80%
Budućnost Popovac or Mladost Medoševac
79%
Draw or Mladost Medoševac
41%

Winning margin

Budućnost Popovac wins by 2+
36%
Mladost Medoševac wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Budućnost Popovac 1+ goals
88%
Budućnost Popovac 2+ goals
62%
Budućnost Popovac 3+ goals
35%
Mladost Medoševac 1+ goals
68%
Mladost Medoševac 2+ goals
32%
Mladost Medoševac 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Budućnost Popovac (draw refunded)
75%
Mladost Medoševac (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budućnost Popovac at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Mladost Medoševac away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budućnost Popovac attack 1.84 + Mladost Medoševac defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.10

Mladost Medoševac attack 1.21 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Budućnost Popovac scores more
59%
level
21%
Mladost Medoševac scores more
20%

Budućnost Popovac at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Budućnost Popovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Budućnost Popovac vs Mladost Medoševac

Budućnost Popovac beat Mladost Medoševac 3-1 in Srpska Liga - East on June 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Begavica in Popovac.