Mladost Lucani 1–1 IMT Novi Beograd: Result & Stats

Mladost Lucani

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

IMT Novi Beograd

O. Bondzulic 15'

M. Jovic 42'

7/20/2025

Super Liga · Round 1Mladost Stadium Lučani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Mladost Lucani44%

×Draw26%

IMT Novi Beograd31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladost LucaniExpected goals in this matchIMT Novi Beograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.19

Mladost Lucani

1.47

IMT Novi Beograd

1.19

Mladost Lucani creates 24% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 55 away

1.34

creates per match

1.20

1.17

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Mladost Lucani

1.34

IMT Novi Beograd

1.20

allows per match

Mladost Lucani

1.17

IMT Novi Beograd

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladost Lucani+0.00on par

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Lucani ↓

IMT Novi Beograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Mladost Lucani or draw

69%

Mladost Lucani or IMT Novi Beograd

74%

Draw or IMT Novi Beograd

56%

Winning margin

Mladost Lucani wins by 2+

21%

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mladost Lucani 1+ goals

77%

Mladost Lucani 2+ goals

43%

Mladost Lucani 3+ goals

18%

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals

70%

IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals

33%

IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mladost Lucani (draw refunded)

59%

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Lucani at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.17 · 143 matches

IMT Novi Beograd away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Lucani attack 1.34 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.47

IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.20 + Mladost Lucani defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mladost Lucani scores more

44%

level

26%

IMT Novi Beograd scores more

31%

Mladost Lucani at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mladost Lucani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

Z. Udovicic

Mladost Lucani · D

7.9

Match Events

13'

Ognjen Bondžulić

15'

O. Bondzulic↳ D. Pantic

24'

Mihailo Oreščanin

41'

Dušan ZagarPenalty confirmed

42'

M. Jovic

45+2'

Luka Luković

46'

U. Ljubomirac← P. Bojic

59'

F. Zunic← M. Orescanin

60'

I. Zulfic← T. Todorovic

61'

U. Bonnet← M. Jovic

61'

V. Milosavljev← D. Zagar

70'

75'

79'

82'

88'

88'

J. Ciric← O. Bondzulic

88'

M. Jevtic← S. Popovic

90+10'

Uroš Ljubomirac

90+8'

Antoine Batisse

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MladostIMT

Overview

46%Possession54%

10Total Shots15

5Corners4

13Fouls21

Shots

10Total Shots15

2On Target5

8Off Target4

0Blocked6

6Inside Box6

4Outside Box9

Passing

46%Possession54%

363Total Passes420

284Accurate Passes336

78%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls21

3Yellow Cards5

2Offsides0