IMT Novi Beograd 3–0 Mladost Lucani: Result & Stats

IMT Novi Beograd

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Mladost Lucani

N. Glišić 77'

F. Malbašić 42'

M. Jevtić 12'

3/9/2025

Super Liga · Round 27Stadion Lagator

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

IMT Novi Beograd44%

×Draw27%

Mladost Lucani29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IMT Novi BeogradExpected goals in this matchMladost Lucani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.07

IMT Novi Beograd

1.39

Mladost Lucani

1.07

IMT Novi Beograd creates 30% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 147 away

1.21

creates per match

0.86

1.28

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

IMT Novi Beograd

1.21

Mladost Lucani

0.86

allows per match

IMT Novi Beograd

1.28

Mladost Lucani

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Mladost Lucani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IMT Novi Beograd ↓

Mladost Lucani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

IMT Novi Beograd or draw

71%

IMT Novi Beograd or Mladost Lucani

73%

Draw or Mladost Lucani

56%

Winning margin

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+

21%

Mladost Lucani wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals

75%

IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals

40%

IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals

16%

Mladost Lucani 1+ goals

66%

Mladost Lucani 2+ goals

29%

Mladost Lucani 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)

60%

Mladost Lucani (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IMT Novi Beograd at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.28 · 58 matches

Mladost Lucani away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.21 + Mladost Lucani defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.39

Mladost Lucani attack 0.86 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

IMT Novi Beograd scores more

44%

level

27%

Mladost Lucani scores more

29%

IMT Novi Beograd at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "IMT Novi Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

N. Glišić

IMT Novi Beograd · D

9.6

Match Events

12'

M. Jevtić↳ N. Glišić

36'

Aleksandar Pejović

42'

F. Malbašić↳ I. Belfodil

46'

O. Krsmanović← M. Joksimović

46'

Ž. Udovičić← N. Ćirković

57'

Filip Žunić

65'

N. Krstić← L. Luković

65'

A. Stevanović← F. Malbašić

66'

O. Alempijević← J. Ćirić

66'

71'

73'

77'

78'

U. Bonnet← I. Belfodil

78'

E. Adimchukwunobi← V. Novičić

90'

S. Popović← V. Radočaj

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IMTMladost

Overview

56%Possession44%

15Total Shots8

5Corners6

12Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots8

6On Target2

5Off Target4

4Blocked2

7Inside Box5

8Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

528Total Passes401

462Accurate Passes341

88%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1