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Mladost Lucani vs Dinamo Vranje — Super Liga 2018

Mladost Lucani
Mladost Lucani
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Vranje
Dinamo Vranje
12/5/2018Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 19Stadion Mladosti u Lučanima (Lučani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mladost Lucani61%
×Draw23%
Dinamo Vranje16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Lucani
1.75
Dinamo Vranje
0.77

Mladost Lucani creates 127% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 19 away

creates per match

Mladost Lucani
1.34
Dinamo Vranje
0.37

allows per match

Mladost Lucani
1.17
Dinamo Vranje
2.16

finishing

Mladost Lucani+0.00on par
Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Lucani ↓

Dinamo Vranje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mladost Lucani or draw
84%
Mladost Lucani or Dinamo Vranje
77%
Draw or Dinamo Vranje
39%

Winning margin

Mladost Lucani wins by 2+
35%
Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mladost Lucani 1+ goals
83%
Mladost Lucani 2+ goals
52%
Mladost Lucani 3+ goals
25%
Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals
54%
Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals
18%
Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mladost Lucani (draw refunded)
79%
Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Lucani at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.17 · 143 matches

Dinamo Vranje away — creates 0.37, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Lucani attack 1.34 + Dinamo Vranje defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.75

Dinamo Vranje attack 0.37 + Mladost Lucani defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Mladost Lucani scores more
61%
level
23%
Dinamo Vranje scores more
16%

Mladost Lucani at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Mladost Lucani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Mladost Lucani 2–0 Dinamo Vranje

Mladost Lucani beat Dinamo Vranje 2-0 in Super Liga on December 5, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Mladosti u Lučanima (Lučani).