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Dinamo Vranje vs Mladost Lucani — Super Liga 2018

Dinamo Vranje
Dinamo Vranje
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Mladost Lucani
Mladost Lucani
8/11/2018Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 4Stadion YUMCO (Vranje)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dinamo Vranje39%
×Draw28%
Mladost Lucani34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Vranje
1.25
Mladost Lucani
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 147 away

creates per match

Dinamo Vranje
0.94
Mladost Lucani
0.86

allows per match

Dinamo Vranje
1.44
Mladost Lucani
1.57

finishing

Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par
Mladost Lucani+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vranje ↓

Mladost Lucani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dinamo Vranje or draw
66%
Dinamo Vranje or Mladost Lucani
72%
Draw or Mladost Lucani
61%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+
17%
Mladost Lucani wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals
71%
Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals
36%
Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals
13%
Mladost Lucani 1+ goals
68%
Mladost Lucani 2+ goals
32%
Mladost Lucani 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)
53%
Mladost Lucani (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vranje at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

Mladost Lucani away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vranje attack 0.94 + Mladost Lucani defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.25

Mladost Lucani attack 0.86 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dinamo Vranje scores more
39%
level
28%
Mladost Lucani scores more
34%

Dinamo Vranje at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dinamo Vranje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Vranje vs Mladost Lucani

Mladost Lucani beat Dinamo Vranje 3-1 in Super Liga on August 11, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion YUMCO (Vranje).